WILL CHINA EVER BE NUMBER 1? ASK SINGAPORE'S LEE KUAN YEW

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/16/will_china_ever_be_no_1_lee_kuan_yew

FOREIGN POLICY MAGAZINE

Will China Ever Be No. 1?

If you want to know the answer, ask Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew.

BY GRAHAM ALLISON, ROBERT D. BLACKWILL |FEBRUARY 16, 2013

Will China continue to grow three times faster than the United States to become the No. 1 economy in the world in the decade ahead? Does China aspire to be the No. 1 power in Asia and ultimately the world? As it becomes a great power, will China follow the path taken by Japan in becoming an honorary member of the West?

Despite current punditry to the contrary, the surest answer to these questions is: No one knows. But statesmen, investors, and citizens in the region and beyond are placing their bets. And U.S. policymakers, as they shape the Obama administration's pivot to Asia, are making these judgments too. In formulating answers to these questions, if you could consult just one person in the world today, who would it be? Henry Kissinger, the American who has spent by far the most time with China's leaders since Mao, has an answer: Lee Kuan Yew.

Lee is the founding father of modern Singapore and was its prime minister from 1959 to 1990. He has honed his wisdom over more than a half century on the world stage, serving as advisor to Chinese leaders from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping and American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. This gives him a uniquely authoritative perspective on the geopolitics and geoeconomics of East and West.

Lee Kuan Yew's answers to the questions above are: yes, yes, and no. Yes, China will continue growing several times faster than the United States and other Western competitors for the next decade, and probably for several more. Yes, China's leaders are serious about becoming the top power in Asia and on the globe. As he says: "Why not? Their reawakened sense of destiny is an overpowering force." No, China will not simply take its seat within the postwar order created by the United States. Rather, "it is China's intention to become the greatest power in the world -- and to be accepted as China, not as an honorary member of the west," he said in a 2009 speech.

Western governments repeatedly appeal to China to prove its sense of international responsibility by being a good citizen in the global order set up by Western leaders in the aftermath of World War II. But as Kissinger observes, these appeals are "grating to a country that regards itself as adjusting to membership in an international system designed in its absence on the basis of programs it did not participate in developing."

In Lee's view, "the Chinese are in no hurry to displace the U.S. as the number one power in the world." As he told us in an interview, some Chinese, "imagine that the 21st century will belong to China, others expect to share the century with the U.S. as they build up to the Chinese century to follow."

China's strategy to achieving preeminence, according to Lee, is "to build a strong and prosperous future and use their huge and increasingly highly skilled and educated workforce to out-sell, and out-build all others." Militarily, China's leaders do not envision a confrontation until the country has "overtaken the U.S. in the development and application of technology," an area in which it still lags.

As Lee says, "the Chinese have figured out that if they stay with 'peaceful rise' and just contest for first position economically and technologically, they cannot lose." But when it comes to hard power, Chinese leaders are primarily still heeding the maxim of Deng Xiaoping: "Hide your strength, bide your time."

Are we thus entering a Chinese era? Lee expects so, though he notes that "the chances of it going wrong in China are about one in five." If Lee is correct, leaders in both China and the United States will face a huge challenge in coming decades as a rising power rivals a ruling power. Historically, statesmen have failed this test: 11 of 15 such cases since 1500 ended in war. Today's leaders must bear this grim statistic in mind, learn from the success stories, and brace themselves for the fact that massive adjustments of attitudes and actions will be required by both sides to avoid violent conflict in the future.

Graham Allison is director of Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Robert D. Blackwill is Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. They are co-authors of Lee Kuan Yew: the Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World.

CHINA DISARMING INDIA WITHOUT FIGHTING: Sun Tzu at its best!!

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/02/24/china-disarming-india-without-fighting-49534.html

NITI CENTRAL

China disarming India without fighting

By Claude Arpi on February 24, 2013

More than 2,000 years back, Sun Tzu, the author of the Art of War wrote, “For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill; to subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.”

If I was a Chinese general and keen to defeat India without combating, do you know what I would do?

I would provide ‘proofs’ that foreign arms dealers have corrupted some Indian officials or politicians by paying hefty ‘commissions’. I would repeat this for each and every armament deal.

The result would be terrific. The Indian Ministry of Defence would immediately cancel all the deals, no more arms for the three Indian services! It would be rather easy to realise. One just has to ‘inform’ the Indian Government that something has gone wrong in the procurement process, and ‘someone’ has taken money.

So easy to do and easy to believe! The reverse would be unbelievable.

A few days ago, a US company, Mandiant, identified the People’s Liberation Army’s Shanghai-based unit 61398 as the organisation behind most computer attacks against the United States. Through Unit 61398, I would leak some ‘details’ about the bribes to the MoD or better, to a gullible ‘breaking news’ channel.

Mandiant’s detailed 60-page study tracked individuals of a sophisticated hacking group, known in the United States as ‘Comment Crew’. The report said, “The activity we have directly observed likely represents only a small fraction of the cyber espionage that APT1 has conducted.” APT1 stands for ‘Advanced Persistent Threat’, the most dominant being termed APT1.

The report continues, “We have analysed the group’s intrusions against nearly 150 victims over seven years. We uncovered (in Shanghai) a substantial amount of APT1’s attack infrastructure, command and control, and modus operandi (tools, tactics, and procedures) Our research found that People’s Liberation Army (PLA’s) Unit 61398 is similar to APT1 in its mission, capabilities, and resources.”

Further, it was discovered that PLA Unit 61398 is located exactly in the place from which APT1 activity originates.

As a Chinese general, I would have the perfect tool to win the war. Let us take an example, the latest scam or Choppergate.

In 2010, the Government signed a Rs 4,000 crore contract for procurement of 12 AW101 helicopters from the Anglo-Italian firm AgustaWestland for the use of Indian VVIPs. Three of the 12 helicopters ordered have already been delivered (and an advance of 40 per cent has been paid).

Citing an ‘integrity clause’, Defence Minister AK Antony immediately announced that the contract will be cancelled and a show-cause notice was sent to the company to this effect.

Defence expert, Ajai Shukla commented in Business Standard, “Defence Minister AK Antony’s ‘strong action’ against Italian defence giant Finmeccanica, and its Anglo-Italian helicopter subsidiary, AgustaWestland, is aimed at making him sound like a man of steel.”

Now, Antony has no proof of any offence as yet, as the Italian prosecutors in Milan have refused to share incriminating documents with India. This is logical as the trial has not yet started, but it does not matter as, in India, loud voices have started asking for a ban. One commentator even suggested cancelling the deal for 126 Rafales because the fighter planes of Dassault Aviation were armed with missiles manufactured by the European company MBDA, of which Finmeccanica is a minority shareholder.

The rule, say the babus, is when a defence firm, Indian or foreign, comes under a corruption cloud, not only are all its contracts, present and the future, cancelled, but the entire group of companies are blacklisted and they can’t work in India for a minimum of 10 years.

According to this thinking, Dassault would be banned because Rafale may use weapons made by MBDA; the French firm being owned by BAE (37.5 per cent) and EADS (37.5 per cent). The Rafale’s rival Eurofighter would also be banned as Finmeccanica is part of the Eurofighter GMBH consortium, etc, etc, etc.

At the end, I, the Chinese general will effortlessly win the war, because India will not get a single piece of armament required for its defence and this, for the next one or two decades. I would merely have to leak some credible information into a few Indian computers.

Some will say, “It is a good thing; we shall now indigenise the defence production.” Faster said than done, the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft has been on the HAL drawing table for the past decades. Air Chief NAK Browne recently declared, “By my estimate the Initial Operational Clearance should be by the end of 2013 and the Final Operational Clearance (FOC) should take another year-and-half more.” Ditto for many DRDO projects.

So, as a Chinese general, I would used Unit 61398 or any other ‘research labs’ to pass on to South Block the information that there is something ‘fishy’ in each and every armament deal and the trick will be done.

The next day, the MoD will ‘cancel’ the deal using the ‘termination clause’.

I would subdue my enemy without a fight! That’s skill! India’s tragedy is that it prefers to punish the bribe-givers and leave free the bribe-takers and then ban the former in order to look honest. Unless the rotten apples are booked, the Chinese generals will keep laughing.

Separate issue: I am wondering what the Ministry of Defence is doing against Unit 61398 or its sister/brother concerns? Whether one likes it or not, cyberwar will be tomorrow’s war; the Chinese are far in advance on us in this field.

Steamed and Salted Orange Cures Cough

Steamed & Salted Orange Cures Cough
This method had been tested by many people, and found to be
one of the best methods to stop cough.
Cut off the top part of the orange, put some salt into the orange,
and replace the top part. Steam it for 10 minutes and eat all the
flesh including the juice at the bottom of the bowl. May not taste
very nice, but cures your prolonged cough in days.
Cut off a little slice off the orange's top

Add a teaspoon of salt. Replace sliced top and fix it with a toothpick. Place in a bowl and steam for 10 minutes. Consume it. Don't forget to drink-up the water left in the bowl. It tastes sour and salty, but is good for cure. This method had been tested and found effective by many people. One of the simplest and best ways to stop cough.

Rice Terraces In China

Don't be fooled, it's not a painting: Incredible views of rice terraces that look like a stairway to heaven By Daily Mail Reporter PUBLISHED: 21:32 GMT, 10 February 2013 | UPDATED: 08:06 GMT, 11 February 2013 These stunning images showing abstract swirls of colours and patterns could be mistaken for a collection of paintings. But they are in fact photographs of the breathtaking Hani Rice Terraces, found in the mountains above Yuanyang, in south-west China. They are often described as the 'stairway to heaven' because of the vast layers of land reaching heights of up to 2000 meters above sea level. Stunning: Hani Terraces are located at Yuanyang County in Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province Natural wonder: The site is protected by the laws of the People's Republic of China The Hani people's ancestors came to the steep mountain area 2,500 years ago. In their struggle against the difficult terrain they transformed the land into terraced rice paddies where they grew rice to make a living. ༯div> The creativity of the Hani people has not only transformed the area into a fertile area to grow rice but also a place of artistic beauty. In recognition, the Ming Dynasty emperor granted the title of Skillful Sculpture to the Hani people and the fields have been officially acknowledged by UNESCO as a World Cultural and Natural Heritage site. Hani people have created fantastic and perfect land art of vast terraced fields in the heritage site Wonder of the world: Two thousand five hundred years ago, the ancestors of Hani people came from Tibetan Plateau to work this land Beautiful: The Yuanyang Rice Terraces are situated in the southern Ailao Mountains, dug out by the Hani people The entire field is irrigated with spring water from the forest above to rejuvenate and prepare for the next growing season Over quite a long period of time the local people have cultivated a great number of rice species in their farming activities. The site is protected by the laws of the People's Republic of China and support enough rice for hundreds of thousands of people.࠼/font> Picture perfect: The water flows down the fields creating this amazing natural scenery Stairway to heaven: The 1000m of mountain slopes of terraces are still in used today and were created by the people of Hani thousands of years ago Like a painting: The water which flows down from the mountains are crystal clear while the air is incredibly clean Yuanyang county lies at an altitude ranging from 140 along the Red River up to nearly 3000 metres above sea level in the Ailao mountains and is about 50km north of the border with Vietnam. During the winter to early spring season the entire field is irrigated with spring water from the forest above to rejuvenate and prepare for the next growing season.༯font> There is only one harvest per year for the Yuanyang Rice Terrace and planting occurs from March to November every year. The amazing rice-terraces were built on the red-soil mountains by the Hani people Without hard work maintaining the terrace walls and irrigation system, the precious top soil would wash down the hillsides into the rivers The entire field is irrigated with spring water from the forest above to rejuvenate and prepare for the next growing season Natural beauty: There is only one harvest per year for the Yuanyang Rice Terrace Close up: The terraces were created by the Hani people thousands of years ago During the winter to early spring season, the entire field is filled with spring water

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